A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
