A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
